Before funding

AI portfolio arbitration

Compare options pursuing the same purpose, remove those that are not admissible and show which assumptions actually govern allocation.

On this page
The question

Which use cases actually deserve time, data and budget?

When several AI ideas compete for the same resources, a weighted average is not enough. Arbitration must compare every candidate with a baseline, separate evidence from assumptions and show what would change the decision.

The protocol

From question to ranking, in the right order

The score is never the starting point. The question, the option without a new AI system and the constraints are fixed before trade-offs are examined.

  1. Frame

    set the authority, objective, horizon, resources and baseline

  2. Compare

    assemble options that genuinely answer the same question

  3. Filter

    apply non-compensatory conditions before any ranking

  4. Measure

    connect every value to a function, evidence, date and owner

  5. Weight

    compare the value of state changes in a decision conference

  6. Stress-test

    test disagreements, weights, rank reversals and sign the choice

The domains

Five control lenses, criteria built for the decision

The five domains prevent blind spots; they prescribe neither five scores nor five fixed weights. Each engagement derives criteria that distinguish the options without counting the same effect twice.

DomainQuestion examinedDouble count to remove
Useful effectsWhich attributable change is expected against the baseline?Do not count the same gain under value, adoption and feasibility
DataCan the required data be used for the target population?Separate measured quality, rights and the cost of remediation
FeasibilityDoes the chain hold under target and degraded conditions?Do not turn an uncontrolled risk into mere technical effort
Operating capabilityAre the process, oversight and skills practicable?Distinguish willingness to adopt from demonstrated capability
Risks and impactsWhich negative effects remain and who can stop them?An unacceptable limit becomes a gate, not a low score
Decision gates

What is unacceptable cannot be compensated

The authority sets its risk tolerance and non-compensatory conditions before seeing the scores. These examples are adapted to the portfolio’s context, sector and legal regime.

Non-compensatory conditionEffectEvidence required to reopen
Prohibited use or residual impact outside toleranceStopRevised qualification and risk brought below the approved threshold
Data without sufficient rights, coverage or qualityDeferRights, population, quality and lineage established
No owner, human oversight or fallback modeDeferMandated owner and tested operating controls
Performance not demonstrated under target conditionsReframeTest protocol, baseline and reproducible results
Robustness

A recommendation must survive plausible assumptions

The pivot scenario is recalculated across documented bounds. A recommendation that changes after the first reasonable movement in a score or weight is not presented as a priority.

Score uncertainty
Calculate lower and upper bounds from the available evidence
Weight sensitivity
Vary each weight within the range accepted by the authority
Switching value
Identify the exact assumption that reverses the ranking or decision
Stability
Classify the result as robust, conditional or indeterminate
Three examined cases

A relative ranking, never a universal merit score

These values are entirely synthetic. They use an illustrative profile to verify the calculation; a live decision adds value functions, gates, sources, intervals and weight scenarios.

Use caseImpactDataFeasibilityAdoptionControlsIndexReading
A Sales-call transcription and CRM update 70 85 80 70 6574.25Rank 1, still conditional
B Legal contract review assistant 90 35 70 55 3060.75Rank 2, evidence to strengthen
C Generative design for a production line 55 40 35 50 4545.75Rank 3, dominated in this scenario
What you receive

A reproducible and contestable arbitration

The committee receives the recommendation and everything required to reproduce, challenge or revise it when the context changes.

Versioned frame
Decision, baseline, axes, anchors, weights and decision gates
Evidence register
Source, date, scope, reliability and author for every judgement
Robustness analysis
Intervals, sensitivities, switching values and ranking conflicts
Decision log
Decision, rationale, conditions, authority, due date and review trigger

Primary sources

Sources this page relies on

Last documentary review: 7 September 2026.

Before you write to us

Frequently asked questions

How can use cases with different effects be compared?

The mandate fixes one decision question, one baseline and the resources in contention. Raw performances are then translated through explicit value functions before weighting.

Why not use a weighted average directly?

Because a total can conceal an unacceptable condition, double-counting or a trade-off the authority does not accept. Gates, scales and model admissibility are checked before calculation.

Do the five domains have fixed weights?

No. They are a coverage control. Criteria and ranges are constructed for the decision; weights then compare the value of changes of state through swing weighting.

Does first rank automatically trigger funding?

No. Rank is relative to admissible options and the versioned frame. The authority receives possible reversals, uncertainty and limitations, then makes and signs the decision.

Next step

Which decision must your portfolio make possible?

State the candidates, the authority deciding and the resources in contention. We will specify the protocol, evidence and robustness tests required.

Tell us about your situation