AI portfolio arbitration

AI portfolio arbitration

Apply decision gates before the score

A prohibited, intolerable or unknown condition does not become acceptable because an average is high. It must be resolved before any ranking.

Principle

Separate admissibility from preference

A gate asks whether an option may enter the arbitration. A criterion asks which admissible option is preferred. Mixing the two allows a secondary benefit to offset a limit that was never meant to be compensated.

Specification

Write every gate as an executable control

A general phrase such as “acceptable risk” cannot be tested. The gate names the object, condition, evidence, person qualifying it and authority deciding the effect.

Minimum fields for a decision gate

FieldQuestionRequirement
ConditionWhich fact opens or closes the gate?Observable state and scope
EvidenceWhich item supports the conclusion?Source, date, version and limitation
AuthorityWho may accept or refuse?Name, role and delegation
EffectWhat happens if it fails?Stop, defer or reframe
ReopeningWhat permits reassessment?Expected evidence and owner

Condition

Question
Which fact opens or closes the gate?
Requirement
Observable state and scope

Evidence

Question
Which item supports the conclusion?
Requirement
Source, date, version and limitation

Authority

Question
Who may accept or refuse?
Requirement
Name, role and delegation

Effect

Question
What happens if it fails?
Requirement
Stop, defer or reframe

Reopening

Question
What permits reassessment?
Requirement
Expected evidence and owner

States

Three states, never pass by default

Missing evidence is not a pass. It preserves uncertainty and prevents the option from receiving a ranking presented as decision-ready.

Passed
The condition is met for the examined version and scope
Unknown
Evidence is inconclusive; the option remains outside the ranking
Failed
The condition is breached; the specified effect is applied
Expired
Old evidence or a change requires fresh qualification

Families

Adapt gates to the legal and operating context

The following families structure the examination without creating universal thresholds. Their wording depends on the use, sector, affected people and approved tolerance.

FamilyExample conditionPossible effect
AdmissibilityProhibited use or undefined purposeStop or reframe
ImpactsResidual risk outside toleranceStop or reduce scope
DataRight to use critical data not establishedDefer
OperationNo practicable fallback capabilityDefer or reframe
ResourcesMandatory cost or time constraint not metRemove from the current frame

Admissibility

Example condition
Prohibited use or undefined purpose
Possible effect
Stop or reframe

Impacts

Example condition
Residual risk outside tolerance
Possible effect
Stop or reduce scope

Data

Example condition
Right to use critical data not established
Possible effect
Defer

Operation

Example condition
No practicable fallback capability
Possible effect
Defer or reframe

Resources

Example condition
Mandatory cost or time constraint not met
Possible effect
Remove from the current frame

Execution

Put every option through the same protocol

Order and evidence level remain the same for every candidate. The log retains initial states, examined evidence and every exception.

  • Freeze — version the gates before reading scores
  • Examine — connect every status to evidence and an owner
  • Challenge — review qualifications that remove an option
  • Decide — apply the effect through the specified authority
  • Lock — exclude unknown or failed states from ranking
  • Retain — date the verdict and reassessment trigger

Reopening

Reassess on new evidence, never on new pressure

An option returns when the expected evidence exists, the condition is reassessed and the authority confirms the new status. Renaming the option, artificially narrowing the risk or increasing another score does not reopen anything.

Output

Produce a register that explains every exclusion

The register connects option, gate, status, evidence, authority, effect, rationale and reopening condition. A committee can distinguish a preference choice from a legal, ethical, technical or operating impossibility.

Sources and references

Frequently asked questions

How does a gate differ from a criterion?

A gate establishes whether an option may enter the ranking. A criterion compares options that are already admissible. A failed gate cannot be offset by a better value elsewhere.

What does unknown evidence mean?

The condition is neither satisfied nor disproved. The option remains outside the ranking until the expected evidence is produced and qualified.

Can a gate be reopened?

Yes, on new evidence defined in advance, followed by a fresh qualification and a decision by the competent authority — never through sponsor pressure alone.

Decision gates

What are you currently trying to offset with a high score?

Present the mandatory constraints and available evidence. We separate what can be compared from what must be resolved first.

Review the gates