AI portfolio arbitration
Build criteria and anchors that withstand scrutiny
A grid becomes defensible when every value denotes an observable state, the options are comparable and two readers can reconstruct the same reasoning.
Frame
Start with a decision, not a list of criteria
The same option may be useful for learning and unsuitable for industrialisation. Before measurement, the mandate fixes the decision, objective, horizon, scarce resources, affected population and baseline option.
- Question
- A decision phrased so it can actually be resolved
- Baseline
- What happens if no new option is commissioned
- Options
- Complete candidates that are comparable and distinct
- Authority
- The person or body empowered to accept trade-offs
Criteria
Retain only what can genuinely change the choice
A criterion enters the model only if it describes a useful difference between options. We search for missing effects, overlaps and causal dependencies before writing a scale.
Scales
Move from raw measure to interpretable value
A value function translates performance into the language of the decision. It may be linear, contain a threshold or reflect diminishing returns; its form must be justified, not selected to improve a ranking.
Value-function control
| Element | Control question | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Raw measure | What is observed before transformation? | Unit, source, population and date |
| Low anchor | What is the least desirable state relevant to this choice? | Value 0 and rationale |
| High anchor | What is the most desirable state relevant to this choice? | Value 100 and rationale |
| Shape | Does one raw unit create the same value everywhere? | Function, breakpoints and assumptions |
Raw measure
- Control question
- What is observed before transformation?
- Record
- Unit, source, population and date
Low anchor
- Control question
- What is the least desirable state relevant to this choice?
- Record
- Value 0 and rationale
High anchor
- Control question
- What is the most desirable state relevant to this choice?
- Record
- Value 100 and rationale
Shape
- Control question
- Does one raw unit create the same value everywhere?
- Record
- Function, breakpoints and assumptions
Admissibility
Check that a total is meaningful before displaying it
The additive model assumes that preferences on one criterion remain interpretable regardless of the level taken by the others. If the effect of one criterion structurally depends on another, aggregation can tell a false story.
- Same question
- Identical objective, horizon and baseline for every option
- Valid scales
- Anchors and intermediate values reviewed before consolidation
- Independence
- No criterion replicates or mechanically conditions another
- Accepted trade-offs
- Residual compensation accepted by the authority
Calibration
Surface divergence before the live portfolio
Two assessors independently appraise calibration options. The comparison improves the scale, clarifies the evidence and separates disagreement about facts from disagreement about preferences.
Weighting
Compare changes of state, never words
Swing weighting compares the value of moving from the low to the high anchor on each criterion, over the range actually observed between options. An important-sounding criterion may carry little weight if all candidates are equivalent on it.
| Stage | Decision required | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Reference | Which swing creates the most value? | Assign it 100 comparison points |
| Comparison | What is every other swing worth against the first? | Document pairwise judgements |
| Normalisation | What share does each swing represent? | Weights sum to 1 |
| Scenarios | Which disagreements must remain visible? | Test alternative weight sets separately |
Reference
- Decision required
- Which swing creates the most value?
- Control
- Assign it 100 comparison points
Comparison
- Decision required
- What is every other swing worth against the first?
- Control
- Document pairwise judgements
Normalisation
- Decision required
- What share does each swing represent?
- Control
- Weights sum to 1
Scenarios
- Decision required
- Which disagreements must remain visible?
- Control
- Test alternative weight sets separately
Output
Deliver a grid a third party can read without an interpreter
The calibration record assembles the frame, criteria tree, raw measures, value functions, calibration options, initial appraisals, calibration decisions and weight scenarios. Every object carries a version and owner.
Sources and references
- UK Government — practical multi-criteria analysis guidance (new tab)
Value functions, swing weighting, decision conferencing, sensitivity and ranking robustness.
- UK Government — Green Book 2026 (new tab)
Swing weighting, sensitivity analysis, switching values and the warning against simple weighted scoring.
- NIST AI RMF 1.0 (new tab)
Govern, map, measure and manage the risks of an AI system.
- ISO/IEC 42005:2025 (new tab)
Assessing the impacts of an AI system on individuals, groups and society.
Frequently asked questions
Why is a 0-to-100 scale not enough?
Because the numbers remain arbitrary until 0, 100 and intermediate states are tied to observable performance and a justified value function.
How is the same benefit prevented from being counted twice?
We connect each criterion to a distinct effect, examine causal dependencies and remove or restructure criteria that describe the same change.
What does a weight actually measure?
The relative value of moving between the low and high anchors over the range considered. It does not measure the abstract importance of the criterion name.
Criteria and anchors
Do your criteria describe facts or impressions?
Present the decision, options and current grid. We identify overlaps, ambiguous anchors and missing evidence.